# Regime Transitions: Demographics → Regime Change

| Variable | Full: Z | Full: Age | Z×KAOPEN | OECD |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -0.8019*** | | -0.8279*** | -0.3932 |
| | (0.2476) | | (0.2561) | (0.4823) |
| Z_2 | 0.1164*** | | 0.1179*** | 0.0461 |
| | (0.0385) | | (0.0403) | (0.0659) |
| Z_3 | -0.0047*** | | -0.0046*** | -0.0016 |
| | (0.0016) | | (0.0017) | (0.0025) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.0017* | 0.0015 | 0.0018* | -0.0010 |
| | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | (0.0010) | (0.0015) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.0103** | -0.0101** | -0.0065 | 0.0053 |
| | (0.0052) | (0.0051) | (0.0053) | (0.0101) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0031*** | -0.0031*** | -0.0031*** | -0.0023 |
| | (0.0009) | (0.0009) | (0.0009) | (0.0019) |
| kaopen | 0.0027 | 0.0024 | -0.0126* | -0.0132** |
| | (0.0040) | (0.0039) | (0.0065) | (0.0056) |
| old_dep | | -0.2596** | | |
| | | (0.1124) | | |
| youth_dep | | 0.1048*** | | |
| | | (0.0339) | | |
| Z_1_x_kaopen | | | 0.5515*** | |
| | | | (0.1625) | |
| Z_2_x_kaopen | | | -0.0848*** | |
| | | | (0.0252) | |
| Z_3_x_kaopen | | | 0.0034*** | |
| | | | (0.0011) | |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 3521 | 3521 | 3521 | 946 |
| R² | 0.0249 | 0.0254 | 0.0313 | 0.0198 |
| Countries | 125 | 125 | 125 | 31 |

*Standard errors in parentheses. Logit columns report marginal effects at means.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*